Positive surprises from government reports on retail sales, industrial production, and housing in the past few months are leading economists to revise their real gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts upward supporting the notion that the recession ended in December or January.

Bear in mind: This recovery won’t have the vitality normally associated with an upturn. Economists now expect real GDP growth of about 1.5 in the first quarter. That’s better than the 0.4 the consensus projected in December, but much of the additional growth will come from a slower pace of inventory drawdowns, not from surging demand.

Moreover, the economy won’t grow fast enough to help the labor markets much. The only good news there is that jobless claims have fallen back from their spike after September 11 and that their current level suggests the pace of layoffs is easing.

The recovery also does not mean the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. The January price indexes show that inflation remains tame. Consequently, the Fed can take its time shifting monetary policy from extreme accommodation to relative neutrality.

Perhaps the best news from the latest economic reports was the January data on industrial production. Total output fell only 0.1, its best showing since July. Factory output was flat, also the best performance in six months. Those numbers may not sound encouraging, but manufacturers have been in recession since late 2000. The data suggest that the factory sector is finding a bottom from which to start its recovery.

Production of consumer goods, for instance, is almost back up to where it was a year ago. That’s because consumer demand for motor vehicles and other goods and the housing industry remained healthy during the recession, and they are still growing in early 2002.

Besides, both the monthly homebuilding starts number and the housing market index for the past two months are running above the averages for all of 2001, suggesting that home-building is off to a good start and probably won’t be big drag on GDP growth this year.

Equally important to the outlook is how the solid housing market will help demand for home-related goods and services. Traditionally, consumers buy the bulk of their furniture, electronics, and textiles within a year of purchasing their homes. Thus, spending on such items will do well this year, even as car sales slip now that incentives are less attractive. Look for the output of consumer goods to top year-ago level in coming months.

Even the business equipment sector seems to have bottomed out. Its output rose 0.4% in January, led by a 0.6% jump computer gear. A pickup in orders for capital goods in the fourth quarter suggests that production will keep increasing—although at a relaxed pace—in coming months.

1. American economists are surprised to see that______.

[A]they have to revise the GDP forecasts so often

[B]their government is announcing the end of a recession

[C]US economy is showing some signs of an upturn

[D]GDP growth reflects stronger domestic demand

2. The most encouraging fact about the US economy is that_____ .

[A]employment rates have risen faster than expected

[B]the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon

[C]industrial production is reaching its lowest point

[D]some economic sectors have become leading industries

3. Of which of the following did the author provide a guardedly optimistic view?

[A]GDP growth. [B]The number of layoffs.

[C]Price indexes. [D]Output of consumer goods.

4. Which of the following is the guarantee of a better future for US economy?

[A]Motor vehicles. [B]Housing market.

[C]Business equipment. [D]Computer gear.

5. Which of the following best summarizes the U. S. economic situation today?

[A]American economists are painting a gloomy picture.

[B]It is slowly warming up with moderate growth.

[C]Recession may come back anytime in the coming months.

[D]Most sectors are picking up at a surprisingly fast pace.

參考答案

1.C 2.C 3.A 4.B 5.B

1.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】這是一道涉及對(duì)第一、二段理解的事實(shí)細(xì)節(jié)題。第一段是一句話段落，其主干結(jié)構(gòu)是positive surprises…lead economists to… supporting the notion that…。該段提到政府報(bào)告帶來(lái)的意外驚喜使經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家將對(duì)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)，從而支持了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期已在12月或1月終止的觀點(diǎn)。由一段中的“意外驚喜”和“經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家上調(diào)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)測(cè)的舉措”可知讓他們吃驚的是經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象，即[C]項(xiàng)為正確答案。

第一、二段只提到經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)GDP預(yù)期的一次調(diào)整，無(wú)法推出他們頻繁地修改。排除[A]項(xiàng)。由第一段可知，政府只報(bào)導(dǎo)了各個(gè)領(lǐng)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的好勢(shì)頭，而未宣布經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期的終止。排除[B]項(xiàng)。第二段末句but轉(zhuǎn)折后提到，但是(GDP)增長(zhǎng)部分主要是因?yàn)榇尕浱嵊玫乃俣葴p緩，而不是需求的增長(zhǎng)(surging demand)，由此排除[D]項(xiàng)。

2.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】本題考查了多處事實(shí)細(xì)節(jié)。第三段第二句提到，惟一的好消息是申請(qǐng)失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)金人數(shù)在9?11事件后達(dá)到的高峰期開始回落，現(xiàn)在的水平表明失業(yè)的速度(the pace of layoffs)有所緩和(easing)。該句表明失業(yè)者還在增加，只是增加的速度低于先前。因此，[A]項(xiàng)與文意相反。[B]項(xiàng)與第四段首句“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇并不意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將很快提高利率”含義相反。第五段首句是段落主題句：最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道中最好的消息來(lái)自1月份工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)。末句對(duì)主題予以說(shuō)明：數(shù)據(jù)表明工業(yè)生產(chǎn)部門的產(chǎn)量正在達(dá)到底線，復(fù)蘇即將開始。[C]項(xiàng)是對(duì)該句的改寫，是正確選項(xiàng)。文中雖然提到很多經(jīng)濟(jì)部門，但沒有比較誰(shuí)是主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)，排除[D]項(xiàng)。

3.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】本題實(shí)際考查了多處事實(shí)細(xì)節(jié)。第二段提到，GDP雖然有所增長(zhǎng)，但其增長(zhǎng)大多因?yàn)榇尕浱嵊玫乃俣葴p緩，而不是需求的增長(zhǎng)。而且該段首句也提到：這次經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不具有通常經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)所具有的活力。因此作者對(duì)GDP的增長(zhǎng)是持保守態(tài)度的。

[B]項(xiàng)在第三段提到，即申請(qǐng)失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)金人數(shù)的下降表明失業(yè)的速度有所緩和。[C]項(xiàng)在第四段第二句中出現(xiàn)，即1月的價(jià)格指數(shù)表明通貨膨脹仍然很緩和(remained tame)。[D]項(xiàng)在第六段至第九段都有所涉及。因此作者對(duì)這三個(gè)方面抱有的是很明確的樂觀態(tài)度。

4.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】本題考查了第六段至第九段的事實(shí)細(xì)節(jié)。這四個(gè)段落提到了備選項(xiàng)中四個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)部門。第六段提到，消費(fèi)品的生產(chǎn)幾乎回到了一年前的水平，因?yàn)閷?duì)汽車及其他物品的消費(fèi)需求以及房屋產(chǎn)業(yè)在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間都保持了健康發(fā)展。第七段提到，過去兩個(gè)月的月住宅建筑和房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)都在整個(gè)2001年的平均數(shù)以上。這表明住宅建筑有了好的開始，可能不會(huì)成為今年GDP增長(zhǎng)的累贅。第八段提到，穩(wěn)固的房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)可以刺激對(duì)房屋相關(guān)物品和服務(wù)的需求，如家具、電子產(chǎn)品和紡織品。期望消費(fèi)商品的產(chǎn)量在未來(lái)的月份里超越年前的水平。第九段提到，甚至辦公設(shè)備部門的生產(chǎn)似乎都要降至最低點(diǎn)。它的產(chǎn)量因電腦設(shè)備0.6%的漲幅在1月上升了0.4%。

概括而言，汽車是消費(fèi)者需求的對(duì)象，辦公設(shè)備和電腦設(shè)備的產(chǎn)量只是小幅度的增長(zhǎng)，只有房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)不僅呈現(xiàn)良好發(fā)展勢(shì)頭，而且還帶動(dòng)其他生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展。因此[B]項(xiàng)正確。

5.【金考網(wǎng)銀行招聘答案解析】這是一道涉及對(duì)全文主旨理解的考題。綜合全文，作者對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行了客觀、全面的分析。從第二至四段的內(nèi)容可知，作者對(duì)GDP的增長(zhǎng)原因、經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)勞動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的影響、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提高利率的措施都持有謹(jǐn)慎的樂觀態(tài)度。但是作者也指出失業(yè)的速度有所緩和(三段末)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的貨幣政策相對(duì)中性化(四段末)，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)部門的產(chǎn)量正在達(dá)到底線，復(fù)蘇即將開始(第五段)，辦公設(shè)備部門將以比較緩和的速度繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)(第九段末)。因此[B]項(xiàng)恰當(dāng)?shù)馗爬嗣绹?guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)。

文章開篇就提到，政府報(bào)告帶來(lái)的意外驚喜使經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)。排除[A]項(xiàng)。首段提到，有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期已在12月或1月終止。但下文只描述了經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇趨勢(shì)，因此[C]項(xiàng)不符合。[D]項(xiàng)錯(cuò)在surprisingly fast pace，文中大量出現(xiàn)表示“適中、溫和”含義的關(guān)鍵詞，如tame，neutrality，relaxed pace等，表明經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展速度是緩慢的。

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（責(zé)任編輯：lqh）

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